canada africa partner reservation 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions and odds

2024 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions and odds

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My top 3 picks to win the Kentucky Derby

Sierra Leone

This Gun Runner son is one of two clear favorites in the field and continues to impress since being purchased as a yearling for $2.3 million. In four career races he is just shy of an undefeated entry into the Run for the Roses. His only defeat came last fall in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where he rallied to take the lead before being passed again by Dornoch at the wire.

He was even better in 2024. In his season debut he came from a long way back to beat the strongest field for any Derby preparation this year in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. He then flew home to win Keeneland’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. In all his races he has been a powerful finisher who seems ideally suited for the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by one of America’s best, Chad Brown, and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, a perennial lead rider at Churchill Downs, all signs point to a strong effort from the second choice on the morning line. With a strong early pace expected for this year’s Kentucky Derby, I expect Sierra Leone to finish on top of the lot. He’s my best choice.

Catching freedom

Another colt who should enjoy a fast, early pace in the Kentucky Derby is Louisiana Derby winner, Catching Freedom. After finishing a solid third behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star in his fourth career, the son of Constitution continued his steady improvement by coming from last to win the million-dollar race.

As America’s longest major preparation for the Kentucky Derby, the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles should prepare the winner well for the demanding journey on the first Saturday in May. Trained by Brad Cox, I rated the two-way stakes winner just behind Sierra Leone, but at 8/1 on the morning line he offers excellent value. Under the saddle of Flavien Prat, he will probably ride a good race on Saturday and be well in the mix in the final phase.

Honor Marie

Honor Marie continues the trend of favoring late runners this year and is my best long shot in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Honor Code was a close second behind Catching Freedom last time out in the Louisiana Derby in his second start of the season. Last year, all three of his starts came at Churchill Downs and all were good, culminating in an impressive win at the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.

Back at his home base, the 20/1 player on the morning line should be ready to run his best race yet as a three-year-old. Unlike the top two choices, he has yet to win in two starts this year, but his progress is good and I know he loves the track. Given his high pace, he should also finish flat out in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby best bets and payout (based on my picks)

$5 Exacta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan and Fierceness about Sierra Leone, Capturing Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience and Domestic Product = $150

Bet on My Exacta Pick at FanDuel Racing
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$1 Trifecta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone and the capture of freedom about Sierra Leone, Capturing Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience + Domestic Product about Sierra Leone, Capturing Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Ferocity, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch and Forever Young = $84

Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing
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$1 Trifecta Part Wheel

Sierra Leone and the capture of freedom about Sierra Leone, Capturing Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Wildness, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch + Forever Young about Sierra Leone, Capturing Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience and Domestic Product = $80

Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing
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If you want to calculate your own Kentucky Derby payout, you can use our free horse betting calculator.

Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby

You can bet on the first Triple Crown Race at TwinSpires or FanDuel Racing. Check out our selection of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites for more information.

FanDuel Racing is offering a $20 No Sweat First Bet when you bet on the Kentucky Derby. Plus, you can also claim their $500 No Sweat First Bet welcome offer.

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FanDuel Racing Welcome Offer $500 No Sweat First Bet

How to watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby

  • What: Kentucky Derby (grade 1)

  • Place: Churchill Downs

  • Time: Saturday, May 4 – 6:57 PM Eastern Time

  • How to watch: NBC

  • Bag: $5,000,000